Discussion Board

Consequences of Bayesian method of diagnosis

  • 1.  Consequences of Bayesian method of diagnosis

    Posted 06-21-2021 11:14
      |   view attached
    In my ongoing examination of the Bayesian method of diagnosis, I have looked at its consequences in the attached paper in which the main points are:
    1. The Bayesian method has been prescribed for diagnosis due to its coherence and not due to its diagnostic accuracy in patients with varying prior probabilities of a disease.
    2. Therefore, it is not employed in practice in which the goal is high accuracy in diagnosis of a disease in patients with varying prior probabilities.
    3. The consequences of employing the Bayesian method would be diagnostic errors if it were to be employed which is why it is not employed in practice.
    4. I could not find any published report or series about the Bayesian method being employed for diagnosis in real patients. I would appreciate if any such report is brought to my attention.
    5. The main problem with this method, as I discuss in this paper, is the interpretation of a prior probability as prior degree of belief and combination of the prior probability with a likelihood ratio to generate a posterior probability from which a disease is inferred.
    6. In the method which is actually employed in practice, a prior probability is not interpreted as prior degree of belief and a disease is not inferred from a posterior probability. Instead, a disease is inferred from a highly informative test result (likelihood ratio greater than 10) alone. I plan to characterize and describe this actual method in detail in another paper to be posted on Discussion Board shortly.
    Pleas review and comment on this paper.

    Bimal

    Bimal Jain MD
    MassGeneralBrigham/Salem Hospital
    Salem MA 01970
    The information in this e-mail is intended only for the person to whom it is addressed. If you believe this e-mail was sent to you in error and the e-mail contains patient information, please contact the Mass General Brigham Compliance HelpLine at http://www.massgeneralbrigham.org/complianceline . If the e-mail was sent to you in error but does not contain patient information, please contact the sender and properly dispose of the e-mail.

    Please note that this e-mail is not secure (encrypted).  If you do not wish to continue communication over unencrypted e-mail, please notify the sender of this message immediately.  Continuing to send or respond to e-mail after receiving this message means you understand and accept this risk and wish to continue to communicate over unencrypted e-mail.