Discussion Board

Diagnosis and prior probability

  • 1.  Diagnosis and prior probability

    Posted 21 days ago
      |   view attached
    This attached essay summarizes my views about the unsuitability of the prescribed Bayesian method for diagnosis in practice. The key reason for this unsuitability, in my view, is the interpretation of a prior probability as prior degree of belief in this method which would lead to diagnostic errors if it were to be employed. I cannot find any published study or case report about the employment of the Bayesian method for diagnosis in real patients in practice. If anyone knows of such a study, please let me know.
    In the method employed for diagnosis in practice, a disease suspected from a presentation is formulated as a hypothesis without any prior probability attached to it so that it does not have any prior degree of belief for or against it. This hypothesis is inferred to be correct (or not) and a disease diagnosed from a highly informative test result with likelihood ratio greater than 10.
    Please comment.

    Bimal 

    Bimal Jain MD
    Mass General Brigham/Salem Hospital
    Salem MA 01970

    The information in this e-mail is intended only for the person to whom it is addressed. If you believe this e-mail was sent to you in error and the e-mail contains patient information, please contact the Mass General Brigham Compliance HelpLine at http://www.massgeneralbrigham.org/complianceline . If the e-mail was sent to you in error but does not contain patient information, please contact the sender and properly dispose of the e-mail.

    Please note that this e-mail is not secure (encrypted).  If you do not wish to continue communication over unencrypted e-mail, please notify the sender of this message immediately.  Continuing to send or respond to e-mail after receiving this message means you understand and accept this risk and wish to continue to communicate over unencrypted e-mail. 

    Attachment(s)